Cobresal 2-1 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre plays host to Cobresal versus Deportes Iquique in Primera División, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Cobresal (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal's home record at Estadio El Cobre: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Deportes Iquique have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Iquique's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Cobresal against 1.60 for Deportes Iquique. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cobresal register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Deportes Iquique in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cobresal lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Deportes Iquique winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Deportes Iquique half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cobresal 68% and Deportes Iquique 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cobresal 74% | Deportes Iquique 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 2.24 xG and Deportes Iquique 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.302 / defence 1.354 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.198 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.252. Cobresal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Deportes Iquique bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Cobresal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Cobresal games / 19 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 44% | Draw 20% | Deportes Iquique 36%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.27 | Draw 5.00 | Deportes Iquique 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 78% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 80% | Deportes Iquique 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 44% | Draw 20% | Deportes Iquique 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 78% | xG Cobresal 2.24 / Deportes Iquique 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.302 / def 1.354 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.198 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Deportes Iquique xG
78%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique?
Cobresal 2 - 1 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 44% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 36% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Cobresal and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Deportes Iquique?
Record (1 meetings): Cobresal 0W | Draws 0 | Deportes Iquique 1W.
What form are Cobresal and Deportes Iquique in?
Cobresal (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Deportes Iquique (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.30x the league average against Deportes Iquique's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deportes Iquique's attack (1.20x) against Cobresal's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.2%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
44%
2.27
20%
5.03
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Cobresal xG
Total xG
4.27
2.03
Deportes Iquique xG
2.27
44%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.29
22%
BTTS No
4.48
Clean Sheet
13%
7.61
11%
9.43
Win to Nil
6%
17.28
4%
26.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Cobresal and 2.03 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cobresal come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 8D 7L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Iquique sit at 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deportes Iquique carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Cobresal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cobresal's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Iquique have taken 1.50 points per game from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cobresal are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Deportes Iquique are on 1.84 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Deportes Iquique in 79%.
Last 19 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Deportes Iquique
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Deportes Iquique in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Deportes Iquique have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Deportes Iquique away?
Deportes Iquique's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.30 PPG; Deportes Iquique away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Iquique — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cobresal
0
Draws
2
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Deportes Iquique have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2025, when Deportes Iquique 2-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Cobresal, 80% for Deportes Iquique — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Cobresal and 90% for Deportes Iquique. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Deportes Iquique?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Cobresal's games and 80% of Deportes Iquique's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Cobresal's matches and 90% of Deportes Iquique's.
Do Cobresal and Deportes Iquique tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Deportes Iquique in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Deportes Iquique 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Deportes Iquique 2-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 2.24 xG and Deportes Iquique 2.03 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Iquique landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.30 / defence 1.35 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.20 / defence 1.22, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 44% | Draw 20% | Deportes Iquique 36%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 74%, Deportes Iquique 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deportes Iquique arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Cobresal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cobresal (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.