Cobresal 1-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 August 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 6W 3D 1L at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Coquimbo Unido — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 2.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cobresal, 4 for Coquimbo Unido and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cobresal trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 60% versus Coquimbo Unido 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 62% | Coquimbo Unido 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 0.98 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 0.969 / defence 0.965 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.274 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.076. Coquimbo Unido's defence strength of 0.692 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Coquimbo Unido have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Cobresal games / 48 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 28% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 45%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Coquimbo Unido 2.22. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cobresal 80% | Coquimbo Unido 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 28% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Cobresal 0.98 / Coquimbo Unido 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 0.969 / def 0.965 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.274 / def 0.692 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Coquimbo Unido xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Cobresal 1 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What competition is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 28% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (7 meetings): Cobresal 2W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 4W.
What form are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido in?
Cobresal (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (0.97) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
28%
3.62
28%
3.59
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.30
1.32
Coquimbo Unido xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.3 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.32 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 16W 14D 17L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 24W 13D 10L from 47 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobresal.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 1.74 PPG from 23 outings (11W 7D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 11W 4D 8L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.38 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 16W 14D 17L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 24W 13D 10L in their last 47 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Cobresal's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.74 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cobresal's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cobresal
1
Draws
6
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Cobresal 3-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 78%, Coquimbo Unido 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Cobresal and 48% for Coquimbo Unido. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido in 30%; Coquimbo Unido in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Cobresal's games and 44% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Cobresal's matches and 48% of Coquimbo Unido's.
Do Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Cobresal 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Cobresal 1-2 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 0.98 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.32 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.27 / defence 0.69, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 28% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 45%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 62%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.