Cobreloa 1-3 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobreloa host Universidad de Chile at Estadio Zorros del Desierto in Primera División, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Universidad de Chile have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobreloa 1.01 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobreloa attack 0.921 / defence 0.947 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.189 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.218. Data: 5 Cobreloa games / 35 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobreloa 28% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 45%. Fair-value odds: Cobreloa 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Universidad de Chile 2.22. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Universidad de Chile are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Zorros del Desierto • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobreloa 28% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Cobreloa 1.01 / Universidad de Chile 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Cobreloa attack 0.921 / def 0.947 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.189 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cobreloa xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Universidad de Chile xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What was the final score in Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile?
Cobreloa 1 - 3 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What competition is Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Cobreloa a 28% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cobreloa and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Universidad de Chile?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobreloa and Universidad de Chile in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Universidad de Chile away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobreloa's attack rating (0.92) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus Cobreloa's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
28%
3.62
27%
3.67
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cobreloa xG
Total xG
2.38
1.37
Universidad de Chile xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
7%
14.29
16%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cobreloa and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cobreloa and 1.37 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobreloa
Pre-Season
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cobreloa
0
Draws
2
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Universidad de Chile?
From 2 meetings on record, Cobreloa have won 0, Universidad de Chile have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobreloa and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Universidad de Chile 4-0 Cobreloa.
Who has won more matches between Cobreloa and Universidad de Chile?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobreloa home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Universidad de Chile cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cobreloa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Cobreloa 1-3 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobreloa 1.01 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.37 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Universidad de Chile outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobreloa attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.19 / defence 0.92, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobreloa 28% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 45%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.