Cobreloa 1-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobreloa host Everton de Vina at Estadio Zorros del Desierto in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Everton de Vina away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobreloa 1.35 xG and Everton de Vina 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobreloa attack 0.757 / defence 1.266 | Everton de Vina attack 1.105 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.305. Cobreloa's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Everton de Vina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Cobreloa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Cobreloa games / 40 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobreloa 28% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 49%. Fair-value odds: Cobreloa 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Everton de Vina 2.04. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Zorros del Desierto • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobreloa 28% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Cobreloa 1.35 / Everton de Vina 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Cobreloa attack 0.757 / def 1.266 | Everton de Vina attack 1.105 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cobreloa xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Everton de Vina xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What was the final score in Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina?
Cobreloa 1 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What competition is Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina part of?
Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Cobreloa a 28% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cobreloa and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobreloa and Everton de Vina in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Everton de Vina away split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cobreloa's attack rating (0.76) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Cobreloa's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
28%
3.52
23%
4.38
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cobreloa xG
Total xG
3.17
1.83
Everton de Vina xG
3.52
28%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
16%
6.21
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
5%
21.84
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Cobreloa and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cobreloa and 1.83 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobreloa vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobreloa
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cobreloa and Everton de Vina runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cobreloa
0
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Everton de Vina?
From 2 meetings on record, Cobreloa have won 0, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobreloa and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Everton de Vina 2-0 Cobreloa.
Who has won more matches between Cobreloa and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobreloa home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out Cobreloa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Cobreloa 1-2 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobreloa 1.35 xG and Everton de Vina 1.83 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobreloa attack 0.76 / defence 1.27 against Everton de Vina attack 1.10 / defence 1.21, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobreloa 28% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 49%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.