Cobreloa 2-2 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobreloa host Deportes Iquique at Estadio Zorros del Desierto in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobreloa 1.35 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobreloa attack 0.724 / defence 1.194 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.070 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.397. Cobreloa's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Deportes Iquique bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Cobreloa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Cobreloa games / 12 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobreloa 29% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 48%. Fair-value odds: Cobreloa 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Deportes Iquique 2.08. Deportes Iquique hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deportes Iquique at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Zorros del Desierto • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobreloa 29% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Cobreloa 1.35 / Deportes Iquique 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Cobreloa attack 0.724 / def 1.194 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.070 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cobreloa xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Deportes Iquique xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What was the final score in Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique?
Cobreloa 2 - 2 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What competition is Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Cobreloa a 29% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cobreloa and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Deportes Iquique?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobreloa and Deportes Iquique in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cobreloa's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Deportes Iquique's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Iquique's attack versus Cobreloa's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
29%
3.44
23%
4.32
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cobreloa xG
Total xG
3.13
1.78
Deportes Iquique xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
5%
20.48
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cobreloa and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cobreloa and 1.78 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobreloa
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cobreloa
1
Draws
1
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Deportes Iquique?
From 2 meetings on record, Cobreloa have won 0, Deportes Iquique have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobreloa and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Deportes Iquique 4-1 Cobreloa.
Who has won more matches between Cobreloa and Deportes Iquique?
Deportes Iquique have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobreloa home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Cobreloa and Deportes Iquique share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Zorros del Desierto, Regular Season - 13, as Cobreloa and Deportes Iquique drew 2-2 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobreloa 1.35 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.78 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobreloa attack 0.72 / defence 1.19 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.07 / defence 1.22, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobreloa 29% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 48%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.