Cobreloa 1-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobreloa at 43%, yet in-form Coquimbo Unido provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cobreloa and Coquimbo Unido meet at Estadio Zorros del Desierto in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Form
Cobreloa (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cobreloa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobreloa's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Zorros del Desierto this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cobreloa are significantly better at Estadio Zorros del Desierto than their overall form suggests.
Coquimbo Unido have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Coquimbo Unido arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cobreloa 0W, Coquimbo Unido 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cobreloa — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobreloa 48% versus Coquimbo Unido 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobreloa 71% | Coquimbo Unido 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobreloa 1.58 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobreloa attack 0.967 / defence 1.210 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.908 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.210. Data: 21 Cobreloa games / 51 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobreloa 43% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 32%. Fair-value odds: Cobreloa 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Coquimbo Unido 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobreloa are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coquimbo Unido (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobreloa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cobreloa 60% | Coquimbo Unido 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Zorros del Desierto • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobreloa 43% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Cobreloa 1.58 / Coquimbo Unido 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Cobreloa attack 0.967 / def 1.210 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.908 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Cobreloa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Cobreloa xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Coquimbo Unido xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 01:30 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What was the final score in Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido?
Cobreloa 1 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What competition is Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Cobreloa a 43% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cobreloa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cobreloa and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (1 meetings): Cobreloa 0W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 1W.
What form are Cobreloa and Coquimbo Unido in?
Cobreloa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cobreloa's attack rating (0.97) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.91x) against Cobreloa's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobreloa Win
43%
2.32
25%
4.02
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Cobreloa xG
Total xG
2.91
1.33
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
7%
15.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cobreloa and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Cobreloa and 1.33 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Cobreloa have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 3D 12L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cobreloa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 10W 6D 5L from 21 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobreloa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cobreloa have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cobreloa are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.33 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobreloa
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobreloa and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Cobreloa have gone 6W 3D 12L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 10W 6D 5L in their last 21 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobreloa at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Cobreloa's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobreloa at home: 1.40 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Cobreloa or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobreloa have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cobreloa
0
Draws
1
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Coquimbo Unido?
From 2 meetings on record, Cobreloa have won 1, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobreloa and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2024, when Cobreloa 1-0 Coquimbo Unido.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cobreloa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobreloa 60%, Coquimbo Unido 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Cobreloa and 50% for Coquimbo Unido. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobreloa home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobreloa play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cobreloa's games and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Cobreloa's matches and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's.
Do Cobreloa and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Cobreloa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cobreloa edge out Coquimbo Unido 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobreloa beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobreloa 1.58 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.33 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobreloa attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobreloa 43% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 32%, with Cobreloa to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobreloa 71%, Coquimbo Unido 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobreloa's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Cobreloa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cobreloa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.