Antofagasta 1-0 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 38%, yet in-form Nublense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antofagasta vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nublense make the trip to Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán to face Antofagasta in Primera División, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Antofagasta's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Antofagasta have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Nublense have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Nublense arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antofagasta lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nublense — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antofagasta 52% versus Nublense 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 39% | Nublense 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.21 xG and Nublense 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.891 / defence 1.064 | Nublense attack 0.910 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.164. Data: 54 Antofagasta games / 54 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 38% | Draw 28% | Nublense 34%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Nublense 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antofagasta as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nublense (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antofagasta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antofagasta 50% | Nublense 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 38% | Draw 28% | Nublense 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Antofagasta 1.21 / Nublense 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.891 / def 1.064 | Nublense attack 0.910 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Nublense xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Nublense kick off?
Antofagasta vs Nublense kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Nublense?
Antofagasta 1 - 0 Nublense.
Where is Antofagasta vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Nublense part of?
Antofagasta vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 38% chance of winning, Nublense a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Antofagasta and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Nublense?
Record (3 meetings): Antofagasta 1W | Draws 2 | Nublense 0W.
What form are Antofagasta and Nublense in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Nublense (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Antofagasta's attack at 0.89x the league average against Nublense's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.91x) against Antofagasta's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.56
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.33
1.13
Nublense xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Antofagasta and 1.13 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antofagasta's recent record stands at 16W 18D 20L from 54 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 15L across 54 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Antofagasta against 1.54 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antofagasta have managed 11W 7D 8L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nublense's away record stands at 8W 9D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Antofagasta are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.54 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and Nublense in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 16W 18D 20L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while Nublense have gone 22W 17D 15L in their last 54 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or Nublense away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.54 PPG; Nublense away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Antofagasta
2
Draws
0
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Nublense?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 2, Nublense have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Antofagasta 1-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Nublense?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antofagasta see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 58%, Nublense 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antofagasta) and 46% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Antofagasta keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Nublense in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play Nublense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Antofagasta's games and 54% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antofagasta vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antofagasta's recent games and 46% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antofagasta and Nublense tend to score early?
Antofagasta have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Nublense in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antofagasta edge out Nublense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat Nublense 1-0 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.21 xG and Nublense 1.13 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nublense landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Nublense attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 38% | Draw 28% | Nublense 34%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 39%, Nublense 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Nublense's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 1.22 PPG, Nublense 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antofagasta win broke the near-deadlock. Antofagasta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.