Antofagasta 2-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antofagasta vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nublense make the trip to Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán to face Antofagasta in Primera División, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Antofagasta's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Antofagasta have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nublense have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antofagasta lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Nublense — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antofagasta 65% versus Nublense 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 42% | Nublense 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.06 xG and Nublense 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.921 / defence 1.171 | Nublense attack 0.884 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.285. Data: 26 Antofagasta games / 27 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 29% | Draw 29% | Nublense 42%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Nublense 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antofagasta 60% | Nublense 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 29% | Draw 29% | Nublense 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Antofagasta 1.06 / Nublense 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.921 / def 1.171 | Nublense attack 0.884 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Nublense (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Nublense xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Nublense kick off?
Antofagasta vs Nublense kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Nublense?
Antofagasta 2 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Antofagasta vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Nublense part of?
Antofagasta vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 29% chance of winning, Nublense a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Antofagasta and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Nublense?
Record (1 meetings): Antofagasta 0W | Draws 1 | Nublense 0W.
What form are Antofagasta and Nublense in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Antofagasta's attack at 0.92x the league average against Nublense's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.88x) against Antofagasta's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
29%
3.45
29%
3.45
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.39
1.33
Nublense xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
8%
13.04
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Antofagasta and 1.33 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antofagasta's recent record stands at 10W 8D 8L from 26 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 8L across 26 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Antofagasta against 1.31 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antofagasta have managed 7W 1D 5L from 13 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nublense's away record stands at 3W 5D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antofagasta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antofagasta are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.38 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and Nublense in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 10W 8D 8L in their last 26 games (1.46 PPG), while Nublense have gone 8W 10D 8L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or Nublense away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.69 PPG; Nublense away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Antofagasta or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antofagasta have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Nublense in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Antofagasta
2
Draws
0
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Nublense?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 2, Nublense have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Antofagasta 1-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Nublense?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 69%, Nublense 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Antofagasta) and 46% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Nublense in 31%; Nublense in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play Nublense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Antofagasta's games and 54% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antofagasta vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Antofagasta's recent games and 46% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antofagasta and Nublense tend to score early?
Antofagasta have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Nublense in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antofagasta defy the odds to beat Nublense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat Nublense 2-1 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 29, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.06 xG and Nublense 1.33 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Antofagasta beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Nublense attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 29% | Draw 29% | Nublense 42%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Antofagasta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 42%, Nublense 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Nublense's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 1.46 PPG, Nublense 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antofagasta win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.