Antofagasta 1-0 D. Melipilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antofagasta and D. Melipilla meet at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán in Primera División, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 October 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antofagasta have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antofagasta's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Antofagasta are significantly better at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán than their overall form suggests.
D. Melipilla's overall Primera División record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for D. Melipilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
D. Melipilla's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Antofagasta, 0.60 for D. Melipilla — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Antofagasta 0W, D. Melipilla 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Antofagasta half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
D. Melipilla half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antofagasta 73% and D. Melipilla 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 46% | D. Melipilla 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.70 xG and D. Melipilla 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.964 / defence 1.210 | D. Melipilla attack 0.688 / defence 1.620. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.250. D. Melipilla bring a strong defensive rating of 1.620 — this is suppressing Antofagasta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Antofagasta games / 23 D. Melipilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 52% | Draw 26% | D. Melipilla 22%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | D. Melipilla 4.55. Antofagasta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antofagasta at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antofagasta if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Antofagasta 70% | D. Melipilla 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 52% | Draw 26% | D. Melipilla 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Antofagasta 1.70 / D. Melipilla 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.964 / def 1.210 | D. Melipilla attack 0.688 / def 1.620 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
1.04
D. Melipilla xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla kick off?
Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla?
Antofagasta 1 - 0 D. Melipilla.
Where is Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla part of?
Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 52% chance of winning, D. Melipilla a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Antofagasta and D. Melipilla will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and D. Melipilla?
Record (1 meetings): Antofagasta 0W | Draws 1 | D. Melipilla 0W.
What form are Antofagasta and D. Melipilla in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. D. Melipilla (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antofagasta's attack rating (0.96) and D. Melipilla's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — D. Melipilla's attack (0.69x) against Antofagasta's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.87
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.74
1.04
D. Melipilla xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
4%
24.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and D. Melipilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Antofagasta and 1.04 for D. Melipilla, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antofagasta come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 8D 7L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, D. Melipilla sit at 1.00 PPG from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for D. Melipilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Antofagasta against 1.00 for D. Melipilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Antofagasta's home form reads 6W 1D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Antofagasta are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, D. Melipilla have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antofagasta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antofagasta are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; D. Melipilla are on 1.18 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Blended
D. Melipilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and D. Melipilla in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while D. Melipilla have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or D. Melipilla away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.90 PPG; D. Melipilla away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Antofagasta
1
Draws
0
D. Melipilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and D. Melipilla?
From 2 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 1, D. Melipilla have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and D. Melipilla last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2021, when Antofagasta 1-0 D. Melipilla.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and D. Melipilla?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
D. Melipilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 70%, D. Melipilla 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Antofagasta and 60% for D. Melipilla. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: D. Melipilla in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / D. Melipilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play D. Melipilla?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Antofagasta's games and 40% of D. Melipilla's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antofagasta vs D. Melipilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Antofagasta's matches and 60% of D. Melipilla's.
Do Antofagasta and D. Melipilla tend to score early?
Antofagasta have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, D. Melipilla in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antofagasta edge out D. Melipilla 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat D. Melipilla 1-0 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.70 xG and D. Melipilla 1.04 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. D. Melipilla landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against D. Melipilla attack 0.69 / defence 1.62, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 52% | Draw 26% | D. Melipilla 22%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 46%, D. Melipilla 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
D. Melipilla's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 1.32 PPG, D. Melipilla 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antofagasta win broke the near-deadlock. Antofagasta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. D. Melipilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.