Antofagasta 0-0 D. La Serena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antofagasta vs D. La Serena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán plays host to Antofagasta versus D. La Serena in Primera División, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Monday 8 November 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antofagasta have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Antofagasta's home record at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Antofagasta are significantly better at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán than their overall form suggests.
D. La Serena (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, D. La Serena have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Antofagasta against 1.30 for D. La Serena. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antofagasta have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, D. La Serena in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Antofagasta 0W, D. La Serena 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Antofagasta half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
D. La Serena half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antofagasta 64% versus D. La Serena 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 46% | D. La Serena 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.38 xG and D. La Serena 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.981 / defence 1.134 | D. La Serena attack 0.877 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.296. D. La Serena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Antofagasta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Antofagasta games / 28 D. La Serena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 39% | Draw 26% | D. La Serena 35%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | D. La Serena 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antofagasta are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antofagasta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Antofagasta 70% | D. La Serena 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs D. La Serena | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Monday 8 Nov 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 39% | Draw 26% | D. La Serena 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Antofagasta 1.38 / D. La Serena 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.981 / def 1.134 | D. La Serena attack 0.877 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
1.29
D. La Serena xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs D. La Serena kick off?
Antofagasta vs D. La Serena kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 8 November 2021 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs D. La Serena?
Antofagasta 0 - 0 D. La Serena.
Where is Antofagasta vs D. La Serena being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs D. La Serena part of?
Antofagasta vs D. La Serena is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs D. La Serena?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 39% chance of winning, D. La Serena a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs D. La Serena?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Antofagasta and D. La Serena will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs D. La Serena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and D. La Serena?
Record (1 meetings): Antofagasta 0W | Draws 1 | D. La Serena 0W.
What form are Antofagasta and D. La Serena in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. D. La Serena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antofagasta's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against D. La Serena's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — D. La Serena's attack (0.88x) against Antofagasta's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.86
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
D. La Serena xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs D. La Serena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and D. La Serena expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Antofagasta and 1.29 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs D. La Serena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antofagasta come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 8D 9L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, D. La Serena sit at 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (8W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Antofagasta against 1.21 for D. La Serena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Antofagasta's home form reads 8W 1D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, D. La Serena have taken 0.86 points per game from 14 outings (2W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antofagasta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antofagasta are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; D. La Serena are on 1.36 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Current Season
D. La Serena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and D. La Serena in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 11W 8D 9L in their last 28 games (1.46 PPG), while D. La Serena have gone 8W 10D 10L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or D. La Serena away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.79 PPG; D. La Serena away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Antofagasta or D. La Serena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antofagasta have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, D. La Serena in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against D. La Serena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Antofagasta
3
Draws
0
D. La Serena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and D. La Serena?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 1, D. La Serena have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and D. La Serena last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2022, when D. La Serena 0-1 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and D. La Serena?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
D. La Serena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 71%, D. La Serena 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Antofagasta) and 43% (D. La Serena).
On the defensive side: D. La Serena in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / D. La Serena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play D. La Serena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Antofagasta's games and 50% of D. La Serena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antofagasta vs D. La Serena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Antofagasta's recent games and 43% of D. La Serena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antofagasta and D. La Serena tend to score early?
Antofagasta have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, D. La Serena in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antofagasta's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta and D. La Serena finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 31, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.38 xG and D. La Serena 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antofagasta fell 1.4 short of their projected output. D. La Serena landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against D. La Serena attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 39% | Draw 26% | D. La Serena 35%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 46%, D. La Serena 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
D. La Serena's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 1.46 PPG, D. La Serena 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antofagasta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. D. La Serena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.