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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina encounter.

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Match Analysis

Union La Calera host Everton de Vina at in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 July 2026 at 22:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at , Union La Calera have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Everton de Vina — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Union La Calera: 7 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Everton de Vina, with 1 draws across those contests.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Union La Calera winning.

The historical record gives Union La Calera a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Season Statistics

Union La Calera's full-season record stands at 5W 3D 7L from 15 games. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 15 games (20%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards per game, 0.13 reds per game.

Table Standings

In the Primera División table, Everton de Vina sit 7th on 22 points, 9 places and 10 points ahead of Union La Calera in 16th.

On home turf, Union La Calera's Primera División record reads 2W 2D 4L this term. Away from home, Everton de Vina have posted 3W 1D 3L in Primera División this season. Union La Calera: Relegation - Liga de Ascenso.

Trading Patterns

Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 42% versus Everton de Vina 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 47% | Everton de Vina 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.44 xG and Everton de Vina 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.012 / defence 1.145 | Everton de Vina attack 1.105 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.198. Data: 45 Union La Calera games / 45 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union La Calera 36% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 39%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Everton de Vina 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

Union La Calera dominate the H2H record, yet Everton de Vina are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 60% | Everton de Vina 30%.

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