Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
67%
1.50
18%
5.50
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
3.41
1.05
Universidad de Concepcion xG
U. CatolicaDrawUniversidad de Concepcion
1.50
67%
Home win
5.50
18%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
9%
10.60
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
1%
69.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
2.361
λ Away (xG)
1.046
Total xG
3.407
League avg home goals
1.571
League avg away goals
1.216
U. Catolica attack strength
1.234
U. Catolica defence strength
1.062
Universidad de Concepcion attack strength
0.810
Universidad de Concepcion defence strength
1.218
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
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