O'Higgins 2-3 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 39%, yet in-form O'Higgins provide a compelling counter-argument — this O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
O'Higgins host Everton de Vina at Estadio El Teniente in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 May 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Guide
O'Higgins — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio El Teniente, O'Higgins have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, O'Higgins have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: O'Higgins have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Everton de Vina have managed just 0 wins.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with O'Higgins winning.
The historical record gives O'Higgins a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
O'Higgins in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — O'Higgins 47% versus Everton de Vina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (O'Higgins 48% | Everton de Vina 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 0.89 xG and Everton de Vina 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 0.706 / defence 0.923 | Everton de Vina attack 0.965 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.197. O'Higgins's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Everton de Vina's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 O'Higgins games / 43 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 30% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 39%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Everton de Vina 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form O'Higgins (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: O'Higgins 30% | Everton de Vina 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Sunday 31 May 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 30% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG O'Higgins 0.89 / Everton de Vina 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 0.706 / def 0.923 | Everton de Vina attack 0.965 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Everton de Vina xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina kick off?
O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 31 May 2026 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
O'Higgins 2 - 3 Everton de Vina.
Where is O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina part of?
O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 30% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both O'Higgins and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina?
Record (9 meetings): O'Higgins 6W | Draws 3 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are O'Higgins and Everton de Vina in?
O'Higgins (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from O'Higgins's attack rating (0.71) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus O'Higgins's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
30%
3.37
31%
3.21
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
1.95
1.07
Everton de Vina xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 15.1 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for O'Higgins and 1.07 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, O'Higgins have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 24W 15D 21L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Everton de Vina's form line: 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: O'Higgins on 1.45 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, O'Higgins have posted 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (12W 9D 9L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 9W 5D 16L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, O'Higgins come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
O'Higgins are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are O'Higgins and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
O'Higgins have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — O'Higgins at home or Everton de Vina away?
O'Higgins's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — O'Higgins at home: 1.50 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
O'Higgins's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
O'Higgins
3
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, O'Higgins have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when O'Higgins 2-3 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina?
O'Higgins have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — O'Higgins 40%, Everton de Vina 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (O'Higgins) and 60% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: O'Higgins keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; O'Higgins have failed to score in 33% of games; Everton de Vina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when O'Higgins play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of O'Higgins's recent matches and 63% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of O'Higgins's recent games and 60% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do O'Higgins and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
O'Higgins have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out O'Higgins 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat O'Higgins 2-3 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 0.89 xG and Everton de Vina 1.07 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. O'Higgins beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.71 / defence 0.92 against Everton de Vina attack 0.96 / defence 0.79, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 30% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 39%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 48%, Everton de Vina 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
O'Higgins's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — O'Higgins 1.45 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. O'Higgins (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.