Deportes Limache 3-1 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Limache at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 1 as Deportes Limache welcome Colo Colo to Elías Figueroa Brander. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Limache have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Deportes Limache's home record at Elías Figueroa Brander: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Elías Figueroa Brander. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Colo Colo stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Deportes Limache 1.40 PPG, Colo Colo 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Deportes Limache, 0 for Colo Colo and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Deportes Limache in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Colo Colo in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Limache 53% versus Colo Colo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Limache 50% | Colo Colo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.34 xG and Colo Colo 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 0.947 / defence 0.854 | Colo Colo attack 0.914 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.120. Data: 30 Deportes Limache games / 30 Colo Colo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 48% | Draw 28% | Colo Colo 24%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Colo Colo 4.17. Deportes Limache hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deportes Limache are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Limache offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Limache 10% | Colo Colo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Elías Figueroa Brander • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 48% | Draw 28% | Colo Colo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Deportes Limache 1.34 / Colo Colo 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 0.947 / def 0.854 | Colo Colo attack 0.914 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Deportes Limache (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Colo Colo xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Elías Figueroa Brander.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo?
Deportes Limache 3 - 1 Colo Colo.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Elías Figueroa Brander.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo part of?
Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 48% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Deportes Limache the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Deportes Limache and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Colo Colo?
Record (2 meetings): Deportes Limache 1W | Draws 1 | Colo Colo 0W.
What form are Deportes Limache and Colo Colo in?
Deportes Limache (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Colo Colo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Deportes Limache's attack at 0.95x the league average against Colo Colo's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Deportes Limache's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Limache Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.58
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
2.22
0.87
Colo Colo xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 0.87 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Deportes Limache have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 7D 15L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Colo Colo's form line: 12W 8D 10L from 30 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Colo Colo are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Deportes Limache.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Deportes Limache have posted 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (7W 2D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Deportes Limache are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Limache come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Deportes Limache are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.53 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Current Season
Colo Colo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Limache and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Deportes Limache have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Limache at home or Colo Colo away?
Deportes Limache's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Limache at home: 1.53 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Deportes Limache or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deportes Limache have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deportes Limache and Colo Colo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Deportes Limache's record when hosting Colo Colo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deportes Limache
1
Draws
1
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Colo Colo?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Limache have won 2, Colo Colo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Colo Colo 3-1 Deportes Limache.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Colo Colo?
Deportes Limache have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deportes Limache see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Limache 27%, Colo Colo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Deportes Limache) and 47% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Deportes Limache keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Deportes Limache have failed to score in 27% of games; Colo Colo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Limache play Colo Colo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Deportes Limache's recent matches and 53% of Colo Colo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Limache vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Deportes Limache's recent games and 47% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportes Limache and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Deportes Limache have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deportes Limache cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Colo Colo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Limache beat Colo Colo 3-1 at Elías Figueroa Brander, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.34 xG and Colo Colo 0.87 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Limache beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.95 / defence 0.85 against Colo Colo attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 48% | Draw 28% | Colo Colo 24%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 50%, Colo Colo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Colo Colo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Deportes Limache winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Colo Colo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.