Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Everton de Vina travel to Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's home record at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Everton de Vina have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Everton de Vina's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Coquimbo Unido's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for Everton de Vina and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 54% versus Everton de Vina 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 49% | Everton de Vina 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.70 xG and Everton de Vina 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.039 / defence 0.887 | Everton de Vina attack 1.382 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.202. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.382 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Coquimbo Unido games / 55 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 43% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 33%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Everton de Vina 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Everton de Vina (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Everton de Vina 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 43% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.70 / Everton de Vina 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.039 / def 0.887 | Everton de Vina attack 1.382 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Everton de Vina xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 43% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Record (9 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 2W | Draws 4 | Everton de Vina 3W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.04x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
43%
2.32
23%
4.28
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
3.17
1.47
Everton de Vina xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
6%
16.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.47 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido's recent record stands at 33W 11D 11L from 55 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 24L across 55 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Coquimbo Unido by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Coquimbo Unido have managed 18W 6D 3L from 27 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 9W 3D 15L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.22 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 33W 11D 11L in their last 55 games (2.00 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Everton de Vina away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.22 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 22 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
4
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 52%, Everton de Vina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Coquimbo Unido) and 59% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 44% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 59% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.