Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Concepción.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina beat Concepción 0-2 at Estadio Ester Roa, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. It was 0-0 at the break, with 2 further goals after it. Scorers: S. Londono (58') · B. Martinez (76'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Concepción 1.04 xG and Everton de Vina 1.35 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Concepción fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concepción attack 0.74 / defence 1.32 against Everton de Vina attack 0.92 / defence 0.87, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Concepción 29% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 44%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

In-Play Signals

Concepción controlled the ball (51%). The model had leaned the other way, toward Everton de Vina; and Everton de Vina justified the model by winning without the ball. Concepción shot more often (16 to 13, 6 on target). The game stayed goalless into the break before it came to life. 2 of the 2 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics