Cobresal 2-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre plays host to Cobresal versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cobresal have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal at Estadio El Cobre this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Everton de Vina (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Cobresal, 2 for Everton de Vina and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Everton de Vina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 56% versus Everton de Vina 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 56% | Everton de Vina 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.53 xG and Everton de Vina 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 0.962 / defence 1.028 | Everton de Vina attack 1.336 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.240. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Cobresal games / 54 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 35% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 42%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Everton de Vina 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Cobresal 40% | Everton de Vina 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 35% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Cobresal 1.53 / Everton de Vina 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 0.962 / def 1.028 | Everton de Vina attack 1.336 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Everton de Vina xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Cobresal 2 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina part of?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 35% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cobresal and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
Record (9 meetings): Cobresal 2W | Draws 5 | Everton de Vina 2W.
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in?
Cobresal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cobresal's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.34x) against Cobresal's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
35%
2.89
23%
4.31
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.23
1.70
Everton de Vina xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
6%
15.86
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.70 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cobresal come into this having played 54 games, going 20W 10D 24L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.15 PPG from 54 outings (16W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Cobresal against 1.15 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cobresal's home form reads 15W 4D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (9W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.20 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 20W 10D 24L in their last 54 games (1.30 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 16W 14D 24L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Everton de Vina away?
Cobresal's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.81 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cobresal
6
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Cobresal 2-2 Everton de Vina.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 56%, Everton de Vina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cobresal) and 56% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Cobresal's recent matches and 44% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cobresal's recent games and 56% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal and Everton de Vina finished level at 2-2 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.53 xG and Everton de Vina 1.70 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Everton de Vina attack 1.34 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 35% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 42%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 56%, Everton de Vina 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.30 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.