Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union La Calera host Everton de Vina at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 July 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Union La Calera have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Everton de Vina — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Union La Calera: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Everton de Vina, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Union La Calera winning.
The historical record gives Union La Calera a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 42% versus Everton de Vina 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 47% | Everton de Vina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.45 xG and Everton de Vina 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.011 / defence 1.134 | Everton de Vina attack 1.098 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.198. Data: 45 Union La Calera games / 45 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 37% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 39%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Everton de Vina 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Union La Calera dominate the H2H record, yet Everton de Vina are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 60% | Everton de Vina 30%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Municipal Nicolas Chahuan • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 37% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Union La Calera 1.45 / Everton de Vina 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.011 / def 1.134 | Everton de Vina attack 1.098 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Everton de Vina xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 27 July 2026 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina part of?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 37% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union La Calera and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Record (9 meetings): Union La Calera 6W | Draws 2 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 1.01x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
37%
2.72
25%
4.07
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.94
1.49
Everton de Vina xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.49 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 8D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.00 PPG from 45 outings (11W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.04 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union La Calera's home form reads 8W 5D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 0.91 points per game from 22 outings (6W 2D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.96 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 13W 8D 24L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Everton de Vina away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.32 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union La Calera's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union La Calera
3
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Everton de Vina 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Union La Calera) and 50% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 36% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Union La Calera's recent games and 50% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union La Calera and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera and Everton de Vina finished level at 1-1 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.45 xG and Everton de Vina 1.49 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Everton de Vina attack 1.10 / defence 0.89, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 37% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 39%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 47%, Everton de Vina 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.04 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.