Union La Calera 2-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Cobresal travel to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to take on Union La Calera. The game is scheduled for Monday 31 March 2025, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cobresal — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Union La Calera carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Cobresal have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Union La Calera.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Union La Calera winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cobresal have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union La Calera 58% and Cobresal 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 48% | Cobresal 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.91 xG and Cobresal 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.221 / defence 0.900 | Cobresal attack 0.938 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.108. Data: 35 Union La Calera games / 35 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 59% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 16%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Cobresal 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Union La Calera (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Cobresal lead the H2H ledger, but Union La Calera carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 70% | Cobresal 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Monday 31 Mar 2025, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 59% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Union La Calera 1.91 / Cobresal 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.221 / def 0.900 | Cobresal attack 0.938 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cobresal xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Cobresal kick off?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 31 March 2025 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Union La Calera 2 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Union La Calera vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Cobresal part of?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 59% chance of winning, Cobresal a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union La Calera and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Record (6 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 1 | Cobresal 4W.
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Cobresal (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union La Calera's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
59%
1.71
25%
3.98
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.85
0.94
Cobresal xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
2%
41.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.94 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union La Calera come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 18D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (23W 17D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.25 PPG, Cobresal on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union La Calera's home form reads 10W 7D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (5W 10D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.60 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Cobresal away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.23 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Cobresal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2026, when Cobresal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union La Calera
1
Draws
6
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 3, Cobresal have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 63%, Cobresal 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Union La Calera and 60% for Cobresal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera have failed to score in 30% of games; Cobresal in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Union La Calera's games and 50% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Union La Calera's matches and 60% of Cobresal's.
Do Union La Calera and Cobresal tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Cobresal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.91 xG and Cobresal 0.94 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against Cobresal attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 59% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 16%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, Cobresal 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.25 PPG, Cobresal 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.