U. Catolica 1-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido meet at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Primera División, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
U. Catolica (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
U. Catolica at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — U. Catolica are significantly better at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK than their overall form suggests.
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for U. Catolica against 0.70 for Coquimbo Unido. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — U. Catolica have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Coquimbo Unido in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — U. Catolica lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2024, ended 0–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
U. Catolica — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 56% versus Coquimbo Unido 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 59% | Coquimbo Unido 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.87 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.101 / defence 1.027 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.828 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.215. Data: 59 U. Catolica games / 59 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 57% | Draw 22% | Coquimbo Unido 21%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Coquimbo Unido 4.76. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 60% | Coquimbo Unido 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 57% | Draw 22% | Coquimbo Unido 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG U. Catolica 1.87 / Coquimbo Unido 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.101 / def 1.027 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.828 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Coquimbo Unido xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
U. Catolica 1 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 57% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (5 meetings): U. Catolica 3W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
U. Catolica's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.83x) against U. Catolica's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.46
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.91
1.03
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
3%
31.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.03 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
U. Catolica come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 16D 19L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 1.56 PPG from 59 outings (26W 14D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for U. Catolica against 1.56 for Coquimbo Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
U. Catolica's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 1.24 points per game from 29 outings (10W 6D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
U. Catolica are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.36 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 26W 14D 19L in their last 59 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.41 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coquimbo Unido won 0-3 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, U. Catolica have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
0
Draws
5
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when U. Catolica 3-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 59%, Coquimbo Unido 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (U. Catolica) and 48% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica have failed to score in 28% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of U. Catolica's games and 59% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of U. Catolica's recent games and 48% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat U. Catolica 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat U. Catolica 1-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.87 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.03 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. U. Catolica fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 57% | Draw 22% | Coquimbo Unido 21%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 59%, Coquimbo Unido 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.49 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.