O'Higgins 0-3 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates O'Higgins at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as O'Higgins face Deportes Iquique.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
O'Higgins welcome Deportes Iquique to Estadio El Teniente in Primera División (matchday 6). Kick-off is Thursday 28 March 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Form Guide
O'Higgins — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, O'Higgins have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 1.38 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 0.920 / defence 0.867 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.238 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.199. Deportes Iquique's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing O'Higgins's projected output up. Deportes Iquique have an above-average attack rating of 1.238, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Data: built from O'Higgins's last 35 games and Deportes Iquique's last 5.
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 39% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 35%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Deportes Iquique 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is O'Higgins at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on O'Higgins offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Thursday 28 March 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 39% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG O'Higgins 1.38 / Deportes Iquique 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 0.920 / def 0.867 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.238 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: O'Higgins (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Deportes Iquique xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique FAQs
What time does O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Thursday 28 March 2024 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique?
O'Higgins 0 - 3 Deportes Iquique.
Where is O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique part of?
O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique is a Primera División fixture (matchday 6) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 39% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making O'Higgins the favourite.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both O'Higgins and Deportes Iquique will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from O'Higgins's attack rating (0.92) and Deportes Iquique's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Iquique's attack versus O'Higgins's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from O'Higgins's last 35 games and Deportes Iquique's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
O'Higgins Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.85
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
2.66
1.29
Deportes Iquique xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for O'Higgins and 1.29 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
O'Higgins (Home) vs Deportes Iquique (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
O'Higgins
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2024. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 18 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Mar 2024, when Deportes Iquique won O'Higgins 0-3 Deportes Iquique.
O'Higgins's record when hosting Deportes Iquique specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
O'Higgins
1
Draws
1
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ O'Higgins vs Deportes Iquique H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Deportes Iquique?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, O'Higgins have won 2, Deportes Iquique have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Deportes Iquique 2-3 O'Higgins.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Deportes Iquique?
O'Higgins have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Deportes Iquique run riot with a 0-3 hammering of O'Higgins.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat O'Higgins 0-3 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.38 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.29 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. O'Higgins fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Deportes Iquique outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.24 / defence 1.23, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 39% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 35%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Deportes Iquique win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.