🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Nublense at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Nublense host Union La Calera at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nublense at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Union La Calera have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Nublense) versus 0.90 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

Union La Calera have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 encounters against Nublense's 1 victories.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Nublense winning.

It is worth noting that Union La Calera have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Nublense in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 47% versus Union La Calera 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 36% | Union La Calera 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.49 xG and Union La Calera 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.906 / defence 1.136 | Union La Calera attack 0.793 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.198. Data: 45 Nublense games / 45 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nublense 47% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 27%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 3.70. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Union La Calera lead the H2H ledger, but Nublense carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nublense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Nublense 50% | Union La Calera 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights