Nublense 1-1 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nublense and Deportes Iquique meet at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas in Primera División, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 March 2025 at 23:30 UTC.
Current Form
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Nublense at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas.
Deportes Iquique have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Deportes Iquique's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Nublense against 1.60 for Deportes Iquique. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nublense lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Nublense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nublense half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Deportes Iquique half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 43% versus Deportes Iquique 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 47% | Deportes Iquique 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.53 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.885 / defence 1.012 | Deportes Iquique attack 0.967 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.106. Data: 35 Nublense games / 35 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 46% | Draw 28% | Deportes Iquique 25%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Deportes Iquique 4.00. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 40% | Deportes Iquique 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 46% | Draw 28% | Deportes Iquique 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Nublense 1.53 / Deportes Iquique 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.885 / def 1.012 | Deportes Iquique attack 0.967 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Nublense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Deportes Iquique xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Nublense vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 23:30 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Deportes Iquique?
Nublense 1 - 1 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Nublense vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas.
What competition is Nublense vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Nublense vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 46% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nublense and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Deportes Iquique?
Record (2 meetings): Nublense 1W | Draws 0 | Deportes Iquique 1W.
What form are Nublense and Deportes Iquique in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Deportes Iquique (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nublense's attack rating (0.89) and Deportes Iquique's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deportes Iquique's attack (0.97x) against Nublense's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.51
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.61
1.08
Deportes Iquique xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nublense and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nublense and 1.08 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nublense come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 7D 12L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Deportes Iquique sit at 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Nublense against 1.60 for Deportes Iquique. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nublense's home form reads 6W 4D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Iquique have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Iquique's season.
Attack vs Defence
Nublense are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Deportes Iquique are on 1.77 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique in 70%.
Defensively: Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Current Season
Deportes Iquique
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Deportes Iquique in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Deportes Iquique have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Deportes Iquique away?
Nublense's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.47 PPG; Deportes Iquique away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Nublense or Deportes Iquique been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Deportes Iquique in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Iquique — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nublense
1
Draws
1
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, Nublense have won 2, Deportes Iquique have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Deportes Iquique 0-2 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Deportes Iquique?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 33%, Deportes Iquique 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Nublense and 80% for Deportes Iquique. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Nublense have failed to score in 27% of games; Deportes Iquique in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Deportes Iquique?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nublense's recent matches and 67% of Deportes Iquique's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Deportes Iquique usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Nublense's matches and 80% of Deportes Iquique's.
Do Nublense and Deportes Iquique tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Deportes Iquique in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nublense and Deportes Iquique share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Regular Season - 6, as Nublense and Deportes Iquique drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.53 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.08 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 46% | Draw 28% | Deportes Iquique 25%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 47%, Deportes Iquique 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.33 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.