Everton de Vina 0-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 24 as Everton de Vina welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 October 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Union La Calera have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 1.50 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Everton de Vina, 3 for Union La Calera and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Everton de Vina 64% and Union La Calera 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 51% | Union La Calera 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.17 xG and Union La Calera 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.902 / defence 0.951 | Union La Calera attack 0.784 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.090. Data: 56 Everton de Vina games / 55 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 30% | Union La Calera 26%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Union La Calera 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 60% | Union La Calera 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 30% | Union La Calera 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Everton de Vina 1.17 / Union La Calera 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.902 / def 0.951 | Union La Calera attack 0.784 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Union La Calera xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 13 October 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Everton de Vina 0 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera part of?
Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 44% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Everton de Vina and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
Record (5 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 1 | Union La Calera 3W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.90) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.29
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.98
0.81
Union La Calera xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.81 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 23W 14D 18L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union La Calera's form line: 17W 17D 21L from 55 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.51 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 8W 10D 9L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.22 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Union La Calera in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 23W 14D 18L in their last 55 games (1.51 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 17W 17D 21L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Union La Calera away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.52 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
6
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 1, Union La Calera have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 59%, Union La Calera 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Everton de Vina) and 33% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union La Calera in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Everton de Vina's games and 56% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 33% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Everton de Vina 0-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.17 xG and Union La Calera 0.81 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Union La Calera attack 0.78 / defence 0.85, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 44% | Draw 30% | Union La Calera 26%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 51%, Union La Calera 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Union La Calera's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.51 PPG, Union La Calera 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Union La Calera (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.