🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Cobresal encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Everton de Vina and Cobresal meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.

Current Form

Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Cobresal have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.

When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobresal have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Everton de Vina. A 0.70 PPG lead over Cobresal (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 0W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Cobresal winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Everton de Vina 62% and Cobresal 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Cobresal 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.12 xG and Cobresal 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.873 / defence 1.038 | Cobresal attack 0.980 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 0.927. Data: 41 Everton de Vina games / 41 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 40% | Draw 30% | Cobresal 30%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Cobresal 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Cobresal lead the H2H ledger, but Everton de Vina carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 40% | Cobresal 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights