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Poisson model rates Deportes Limache at 45%, yet in-form Everton de Vina provide a compelling counter-argument — this Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 21 as Deportes Limache welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 August 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Limache have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Deportes Limache at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Deportes Limache are significantly better at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza than their overall form suggests.

Everton de Vina — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Everton de Vina — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Deportes Limache's 30% rate and Everton de Vina's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Deportes Limache, 1 for Everton de Vina and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Everton de Vina winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Deportes Limache trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Everton de Vina trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Limache 56% versus Everton de Vina 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Limache 58% | Everton de Vina 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.64 xG and Everton de Vina 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 1.156 / defence 0.989 | Everton de Vina attack 1.105 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.198. Data: 45 Deportes Limache games / 45 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 45% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 31%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Everton de Vina 3.23. Deportes Limache hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 59% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.

Poisson rates Deportes Limache as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Everton de Vina (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Limache offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Deportes Limache 30% | Everton de Vina 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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