🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Cobresal at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Estadio Tierra de Campeones plays host to Deportes Iquique versus Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 21 November 2025 at 23:00 UTC.

Form

Deportes Iquique (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Deportes Iquique have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estadio Tierra de Campeones — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Cobresal have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobresal have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cobresal are 0.60 PPG clear of Deportes Iquique in recent Primera División fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Deportes Iquique lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2025, ended 1–2 with Cobresal winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Deportes Iquique half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportes Iquique 67% and Cobresal 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Deportes Iquique 74% | Cobresal 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.24 xG and Cobresal 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.903 / defence 1.269 | Cobresal attack 0.910 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.176. Data: 57 Deportes Iquique games / 57 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 34% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 40%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Cobresal 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Deportes Iquique 60% | Cobresal 30%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights