Deportes Copiapo 3-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Copiapo at 44%, yet in-form Coquimbo Unido provide a compelling counter-argument — this Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla to take on Deportes Copiapo in Primera División (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 July 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Deportes Copiapo — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Deportes Copiapo at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Deportes Copiapo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Coquimbo Unido stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Coquimbo Unido are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, Coquimbo Unido 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended Deportes Copiapo 1–3 Coquimbo Unido — a Coquimbo Unido win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Deportes Copiapo in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Copiapo 50% versus Coquimbo Unido 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Copiapo 50% | Coquimbo Unido 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Deportes Copiapo surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Coquimbo Unido have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.55 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.129 / defence 0.859 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.050 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.384. Data: built from Deportes Copiapo's last 46 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 46.
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 44% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 31%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 2.26 | Draw 4.01 | Coquimbo Unido 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deportes Copiapo at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coquimbo Unido (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Copiapo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Deportes Copiapo's last 10 home games and Coquimbo Unido's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Deportes Copiapo 50% (last 10 home games) | Coquimbo Unido 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, matchday 17 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 44% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.55 / Coquimbo Unido 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.129 / def 0.859 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.050 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Deportes Copiapo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Coquimbo Unido xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido FAQs
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Deportes Copiapo 3 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido is a Primera División fixture (matchday 17) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 44% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Deportes Copiapo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deportes Copiapo's attack rating (1.13) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Deportes Copiapo's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Deportes Copiapo's last 46 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Copiapo Win
44%
2.26
25%
4.01
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.80
1.25
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.25 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Deportes Copiapo have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 13W 10D 23L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 25W 9D 12L from 46 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Deportes Copiapo.
Venue Form
On home soil, Deportes Copiapo have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 22 home games (10W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Deportes Copiapo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 10W 5D 7L from their last 22 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Deportes Copiapo are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.50 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Deportes Copiapo (Home) vs Coquimbo Unido (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido Form FAQs
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Deportes Copiapo have gone 13W 10D 23L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 9D 12L in their last 46 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Copiapo at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Deportes Copiapo's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.59 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2023. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 27 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Jul 2024, when Deportes Copiapo won Deportes Copiapo 3-0 Coquimbo Unido.
Deportes Copiapo's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deportes Copiapo
0
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Deportes Copiapo have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2024: Deportes Copiapo 3-0 Coquimbo Unido.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Copiapo 59%, Coquimbo Unido 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Deportes Copiapo) and 54% (Coquimbo Unido). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Deportes Copiapo keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Deportes Copiapo's games and 68% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Deportes Copiapo's matches and 54% of Coquimbo Unido's.
Do Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Deportes Copiapo's recent matches and 64% of Coquimbo Unido's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Deportes Copiapo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Copiapo beat Coquimbo Unido 3-0 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.55 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.25 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Copiapo beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 1.13 / defence 0.86 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 44% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 31%, with Deportes Copiapo to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Copiapo 50%, Coquimbo Unido 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Deportes Copiapo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.