Coquimbo Unido 2-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Everton de Vina travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 August 2025, 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's home record at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this season.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Everton de Vina have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for Everton de Vina and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 45% versus Everton de Vina 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 43% | Everton de Vina 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.69 xG and Everton de Vina 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.028 / defence 0.768 | Everton de Vina attack 0.931 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.101. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Coquimbo Unido games / 49 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 59% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 17%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Everton de Vina 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Everton de Vina lead the H2H ledger, but Coquimbo Unido carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 40% | Everton de Vina 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 59% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.69 / Everton de Vina 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.028 / def 0.768 | Everton de Vina attack 0.931 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Everton de Vina xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 59% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Record (7 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 3 | Everton de Vina 3W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.03x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.20
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.48
0.79
Everton de Vina xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
3%
31.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.79 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido's recent record stands at 25W 14D 10L from 49 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 17L across 49 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Coquimbo Unido by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Coquimbo Unido have managed 12W 9D 2L from 23 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 8W 5D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.37 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina in 61%.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 14D 10L in their last 49 games (1.82 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 16W 16D 17L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Everton de Vina away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.96 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 22 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
4
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 44%, Everton de Vina 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Coquimbo Unido) and 65% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 70% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 65% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Everton de Vina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Everton de Vina 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.69 xG and Everton de Vina 0.79 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.03 / defence 0.77 against Everton de Vina attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 59% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 17%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 43%, Everton de Vina 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.