Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face Deportes Limache.

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Analysis

Deportes Limache make the trip to to face Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Coquimbo Unido have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 4W 3D 3L at — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Deportes Limache (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Deportes Limache's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Coquimbo Unido. A 0.60 PPG lead over Deportes Limache (1.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Deportes Limache in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Coquimbo Unido, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Deportes Limache — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Coquimbo Unido and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Deportes Limache goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 53% versus Deportes Limache 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 47% | Deportes Limache 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.52 xG and Deportes Limache 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.879 / defence 0.894 | Deportes Limache attack 1.230 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.353. Deportes Limache have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Coquimbo Unido games / 50 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 39% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 37%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Deportes Limache 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Deportes Limache 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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