Coquimbo Unido 5-2 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Colo Colo (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face Colo Colo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Colo Colo travel to Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso than their overall form suggests.
Colo Colo — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Colo Colo have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Colo Colo — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Colo Colo, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Coquimbo Unido.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Colo Colo winning.
It is worth noting that Colo Colo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Coquimbo Unido in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Colo Colo in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 54% versus Colo Colo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 48% | Colo Colo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.02 xG and Colo Colo 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.784 / defence 0.865 | Colo Colo attack 1.195 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.299. Coquimbo Unido's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Coquimbo Unido games / 53 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 28% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 44%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Colo Colo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Colo Colo 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 28% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.02 / Colo Colo 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.784 / def 0.865 | Colo Colo attack 1.195 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Colo Colo xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Coquimbo Unido 5 - 2 Colo Colo.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 28% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo?
Record (9 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 2W | Draws 2 | Colo Colo 5W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Colo Colo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (0.78) and Colo Colo's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
28%
3.53
27%
3.64
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.36
1.34
Colo Colo xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
7%
13.51
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.34 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Coquimbo Unido have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 31W 11D 10L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo's form line: 28W 11D 13L from 52 games, 1.83 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coquimbo Unido on 2.00 PPG, Colo Colo on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coquimbo Unido have posted 2.16 PPG from 25 outings (16W 6D 3L).
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 12W 5D 8L from 25 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.75 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 31W 11D 10L in their last 52 games (2.00 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 28W 11D 13L in their last 52 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Colo Colo away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.16 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Colo Colo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Colo Colo specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Coquimbo Unido
2
Draws
5
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, Colo Colo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 5-2 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 52%, Colo Colo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Coquimbo Unido) and 52% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Colo Colo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 56% of Colo Colo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 52% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Coquimbo Unido run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Colo Colo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Colo Colo 5-2 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.02 xG and Colo Colo 1.34 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against Colo Colo attack 1.20 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 28% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 44%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 48%, Colo Colo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Colo Colo's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 2.00 PPG, Colo Colo 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colo Colo (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.