A. Italiano 1-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as A. Italiano face Union Espanola.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union Espanola make the trip to Estadio El Teniente to face A. Italiano in Primera División (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
A. Italiano have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
A. Italiano at home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Union Espanola's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Union Espanola's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for A. Italiano, 1.50 for Union Espanola — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Union Espanola edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended A. Italiano 0–3 Union Espanola — a Union Espanola win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
A. Italiano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — A. Italiano 46% versus Union Espanola 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (A. Italiano 54% | Union Espanola 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects A. Italiano 1.20 xG and Union Espanola 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: A. Italiano attack 0.763 / defence 1.051 | Union Espanola attack 1.087 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.271. A. Italiano's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Data: built from A. Italiano's last 48 games and Union Espanola's last 48.
Result probabilities: A. Italiano 31% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 43%. Fair-value odds: A. Italiano 3.19 | Draw 3.87 | Union Espanola 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Espanola are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Espanola if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: A. Italiano 40% (last 10 home games) | Union Espanola 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: A. Italiano vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, matchday 19 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: A. Italiano 31% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG A. Italiano 1.20 / Union Espanola 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: A. Italiano attack 0.763 / def 1.051 | Union Espanola attack 1.087 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
A. Italiano xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Union Espanola xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ A. Italiano vs Union Espanola FAQs
What time does A. Italiano vs Union Espanola kick off?
A. Italiano vs Union Espanola kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in A. Italiano vs Union Espanola?
A. Italiano 1 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is A. Italiano vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is A. Italiano vs Union Espanola part of?
A. Italiano vs Union Espanola is a Primera División fixture (matchday 19) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win A. Italiano vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives A. Italiano a 31% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in A. Italiano vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both A. Italiano and Union Espanola will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will A. Italiano vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates A. Italiano's attack at 0.76x the league average against Union Espanola's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (1.09x) against A. Italiano's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from A. Italiano's last 48 games and Union Espanola's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
31%
3.19
26%
3.87
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
A. Italiano xG
Total xG
2.66
1.45
Union Espanola xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.66
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ A. Italiano vs Union Espanola Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for A. Italiano vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are A. Italiano and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for A. Italiano and 1.45 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for A. Italiano vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, A. Italiano have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 15W 7D 26L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Union Espanola's form line: 18W 13D 17L from 48 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for A. Italiano against 1.40 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, A. Italiano have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 22 home games (6W 4D 12L).
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 4W 8D 10L from their last 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Espanola's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
A. Italiano are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.56 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
A. Italiano
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
A. Italiano (Home) vs Union Espanola (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
A. Italiano
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ A. Italiano vs Union Espanola Form FAQs
What form are A. Italiano and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
A. Italiano have gone 15W 7D 26L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 18W 13D 17L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — A. Italiano at home or Union Espanola away?
A. Italiano's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — A. Italiano at home: 1.00 PPG; Union Espanola away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 13 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: A. Italiano have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Espanola won Union Espanola 3-0 A. Italiano on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, A. Italiano have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
A. Italiano
3
Draws
3
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ A. Italiano vs Union Espanola H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Union Espanola?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, A. Italiano have won 4, Union Espanola have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did A. Italiano and Union Espanola last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2025: Union Espanola 3-4 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between A. Italiano and Union Espanola?
A. Italiano have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
A. Italiano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — A. Italiano 46%, Union Espanola 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (A. Italiano) and 46% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: A. Italiano have failed to score in 32% of games; Union Espanola in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = A. Italiano home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ A. Italiano vs Union Espanola Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in A. Italiano and Union Espanola matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of A. Italiano's recent matches and 50% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are A. Italiano and Union Espanola matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of A. Italiano's recent games and 46% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do A. Italiano and Union Espanola matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of A. Italiano's recent matches and 68% of Union Espanola's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
A. Italiano and Union Espanola share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
A. Italiano and Union Espanola finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.20 xG and Union Espanola 1.45 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 0.76 / defence 1.05 against Union Espanola attack 1.09 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 31% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 43%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 54%, Union Espanola 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
A. Italiano's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Union Espanola's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.08 PPG, Union Espanola 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.