🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant York United run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Vancouver FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat Vancouver FC 4-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.76 xG and Vancouver FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vancouver FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Vancouver FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.19, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 48% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 24%, with York United to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 60%, Vancouver FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. York United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights