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Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Vancouver FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat Vancouver FC 1-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.39 xG and Vancouver FC 1.76 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vancouver FC landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against Vancouver FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 29% | Draw 25% | Vancouver FC 45%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 61%, Vancouver FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — York United 1.39 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights