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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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York United and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as York United and Pacific FC drew 2-2 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 2.53 xG and Pacific FC 0.76 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pacific FC outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Pacific FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 74% | Draw 18% | Pacific FC 8%, with York United to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 60%, Pacific FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Pacific FC's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. York United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights