Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.79
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
York United xG
Total xG
3.08
1.25
HFX Wanderers FC xG
York UnitedDrawHFX Wanderers FC
2.03
49%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
4%
25.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.829
λ Away (xG)
1.247
Total xG
3.076
League avg home goals
1.809
League avg away goals
1.268
York United attack strength
1.034
York United defence strength
0.988
HFX Wanderers FC attack strength
0.995
HFX Wanderers FC defence strength
0.978
Data phase
PrevSeason
Games used (H/A)
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