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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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York United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over HFX Wanderers FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat HFX Wanderers FC 2-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.18 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. HFX Wanderers FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.77, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 31% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 41%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 60%, HFX Wanderers FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — York United 1.42 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights