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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as HFX Wanderers FC defy the odds to beat York United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC beat York United 1-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.38 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.16, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 40% | Draw 26% | HFX Wanderers FC 34%, with York United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual HFX Wanderers FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 60%, HFX Wanderers FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — York United 1.42 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights