York United 0-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
York United host Forge at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Forge have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York United 2.00 PPG, Forge 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. York United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Forge in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, York United have won 0, Forge 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2024, ended 0–3 with Forge winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 60% versus Forge 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 65% | Forge 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 2.00 xG and Forge 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.231 / defence 0.989 | Forge attack 1.030 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.267. Data: 47 York United games / 47 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 54% | Draw 22% | Forge 24%. Fair-value odds: York United 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Forge 4.17. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: York United 60% | Forge 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 54% | Draw 22% | Forge 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG York United 2.00 / Forge 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.231 / def 0.989 | Forge attack 1.030 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: York United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Forge xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Forge kick off?
York United vs Forge kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Forge?
York United 0 - 0 Forge.
Where is York United vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Forge part of?
York United vs Forge is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives York United a 54% chance of winning, Forge a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both York United and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
Record (2 meetings): York United 0W | Draws 0 | Forge 2W.
What form are York United and Forge in?
York United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Forge (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
York United's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus York United's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.63
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
York United xG
Total xG
3.30
1.29
Forge xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
3%
30.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are York United and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for York United and 1.29 for Forge, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, York United have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 20W 9D 19L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge's form line: 23W 12D 13L from 48 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: York United on 1.44 PPG, Forge on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, York United have posted 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (10W 3D 10L).
On the road, Forge have gone 9W 5D 9L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.58 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Forge in coming into this match?
York United have gone 20W 9D 19L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Forge have gone 23W 12D 13L in their last 48 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Forge away?
York United's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.43 PPG; Forge away: 1.39 PPG.
Have York United or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Forge in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Forge specifically: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
York United
3
Draws
7
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 0, Forge have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between York United and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 52%, Forge 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for York United and 56% for Forge. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Forge in 35%; York United have failed to score in 30% of games; Forge in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of York United's recent matches and 44% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of York United's matches and 56% of Forge's.
Do York United and Forge tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Forge in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at York United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United and Forge finished level at 0-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 2.00 xG and Forge 1.29 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. York United fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Forge landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.23 / defence 0.99 against Forge attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 54% | Draw 22% | Forge 24%, with York United to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 65%, Forge 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.44 PPG, Forge 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.