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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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York United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cavalry FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat Cavalry FC 3-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.65 xG and Cavalry FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.18 / defence 0.90 against Cavalry FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.79, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 49% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 23%, with York United to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 61%, Cavalry FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — York United 1.41 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights