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Dominant York United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Atlético Ottawa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat Atlético Ottawa 4-1 at York Lions Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. It was 0-0 at the break, with 5 further goals after it. Scorers: T. Skublak (50', 55') · L. Cloutier (61') · J. Altobelli (63') · W. Timoteo (84'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.77 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.30 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 47% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 26%, with York United to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 62%, Atlético Ottawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 77% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 68% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with York United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. York United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

In-Play Signals

Atlético Ottawa controlled the ball (53%). The model had leaned the other way, toward York United; and York United justified the model by winning without the ball. York United shot more often (18 to 7, 10 on target). The game stayed goalless into the break before it came to life. 5 of the 5 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics