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Stalemate at York United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United and Atlético Ottawa finished level at 0-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.54 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.37 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. York United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Atlético Ottawa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.22 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 40% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 33%, with York United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 60%, Atlético Ottawa 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — York United 1.40 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights