York United 4-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 July 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for York United against 1.80 for Atlético Ottawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — York United lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2024, ended 2–1 with York United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 60% versus Atlético Ottawa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 67% | Atlético Ottawa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.16 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.161 / defence 0.923 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.237 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.241. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Atlético Ottawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 York United games / 43 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 29% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 41%. Fair-value odds: York United 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Atlético Ottawa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atlético Ottawa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: York United 50% | Atlético Ottawa 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 29% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG York United 1.16 / Atlético Ottawa 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.161 / def 0.923 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.237 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Atlético Ottawa xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
York United 4 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is York United vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives York United a 29% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both York United and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
Record (1 meetings): York United 1W | Draws 0 | Atlético Ottawa 0W.
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in?
York United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from York United's attack rating (1.16) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.24x) against York United's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
29%
3.48
30%
3.30
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
York United xG
Total xG
2.57
1.42
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are York United and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for York United and 1.42 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
York United come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 8D 17L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.51 PPG from 43 outings (18W 11D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for York United against 1.51 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
York United's home form reads 9W 3D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.55 points per game from 20 outings (9W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.53 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
York United have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Atlético Ottawa's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.50 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.55 PPG.
Have York United or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-1 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
York United
5
Draws
1
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 4, Atlético Ottawa have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did York United and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 50%, Atlético Ottawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (York United) and 45% (Atlético Ottawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 35%; York United have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of York United's recent matches and 50% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of York United's matches and 45% of Atlético Ottawa's.
Do York United and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant York United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Atlético Ottawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Atlético Ottawa 4-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.16 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.42 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.24 / defence 0.70, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 29% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 41%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 67%, Atlético Ottawa 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.44 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.