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Dominant Vancouver FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of York United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vancouver FC beat York United 4-0 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. It was 4-0 at the break, the second half adding nothing to the tally. Scorers: N. Mezquida (1') · M. Amissi (6', 38', 43'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.77 xG and York United 1.28 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Vancouver FC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. York United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against York United attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 47% | Draw 27% | York United 26%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 51%, York United 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 67% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

York United's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 82% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Vancouver FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments