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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Vancouver FC defy the odds to beat York United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vancouver FC beat York United 2-1 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.05 xG and York United 1.64 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vancouver FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.54 against York United attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 22% | Draw 30% | York United 48%, with York United to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Vancouver FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 55%, York United 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

York United's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Vancouver FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights