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York United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vancouver FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat Vancouver FC 0-2 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.32 xG and York United 1.02 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. York United outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against York United attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 43% | Draw 28% | York United 29%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 57%, York United 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

York United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG, York United 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights