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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Valour run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Vancouver FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valour beat Vancouver FC 2-5 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.66 xG and Valour 1.56 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Valour outscored their 1.56 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.64 / defence 1.29 against Valour attack 0.97 / defence 1.46, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 39% | Draw 27% | Valour 34%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 55%, Valour 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Valour's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 0.84 PPG, Valour 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights