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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valour cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vancouver FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valour beat Vancouver FC 1-3 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.59 xG and Valour 1.30 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Valour outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.11 against Valour attack 0.93 / defence 1.45, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 42% | Draw 29% | Valour 29%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 50%, Valour 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Valour's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 0.83 PPG, Valour 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights