🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat Vancouver FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pacific FC beat Vancouver FC 2-3 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.15 xG and Pacific FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Vancouver FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pacific FC outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.27 against Pacific FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 35% | Draw 34% | Pacific FC 31%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 53%, Pacific FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Pacific FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 0.91 PPG, Pacific FC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights