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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vancouver FC and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vancouver FC and Pacific FC finished level at 1-1 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.20 xG and Pacific FC 1.64 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.25 against Pacific FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 47%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 57%, Pacific FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG, Pacific FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights